Not Buyin' Ryan

We can speculate all we want, but we won't know what kind of NFL player Matt Ryan is for at least three years. Hopefully we'll look back on this post three years from now and laugh. Unfortunately, Matt Ryan had better make several pro bowls or his drafting will be another in a long history of disasters for the Atlanta Falcons franchise. Throughout the weekend those that championed the pick made one point time and time again:

This pretty much closes the door on the Michael Vick era in Atlanta.

Uh uh. Not by a long shot.

Drafting a quarterback doesn't close the door on anything. Brian Griese, Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler haven't erased the memory of John Elway in Denver. Jay Fiedler, Ken Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerrote, Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon haven't made Miami fans forget about Dan Marino. Drafting Matt Ryan isn't going to make people forget at #7 in Atlanta.

There is only one way people in this town will ever be over the positives and negatives of the Michael Vick era.

Winning.

In case you haven't noticed, that's not something the Falcons franchise has been good at historically. I'm not going to regurgitate the statistics of futility, at this point they're practically tattooed on the foreheads of Falcons fans everywhere. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, than the Falcons management belongs in an asylum.

It's not sexy and it's overly cliche, but the game of football is won in the trenches. Ask the New York Giants about that. It's such a simple concept, so why have the Falcons been so negligent in that regard?

Yes, they drafted Offensive Tackle Sam Baker in the first round and paid a hefty sum to do so, but that was the first time in 15 years the Falcons drafted an offensive lineman in the first round. In those 15 years the Falcons spent a first day selection on offensive linemen just four times (1994 3rd rounder Alai Kalaniuvalu, 1998 2nd rounder Bob Hallen, 2000 2nd rounder Travis Claridge, 2007 second rounder Justin Blalock). They've been about as negligent when it comes to drafting interior defensive linemen. In the past 15 years the Falcons have spent one first rounder (Shannon Brown 1996) on the defensive tackle position and just two total first day picks on defensive tackles (Johnathan Babineaux the other).

With a few rare exceptions the Falcons have ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing defense every year since 1993. They also traditionally rank near the bottom of the league in rushing and sacks allowed. The exception of course was when they had the most dynamic quarterback in league history. Even so while the rushing numbers thrived with Vick, the sacks and sacks-per-pass attempt numbers were still pretty bad.

People will say you can't win without a good quarterback. I'd respond by saying, "Then why do Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have Super Bowl rings?" But being less snarky I'd say, well look at guys like Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. Which came first, the Steelers and the Giants drafting franchise Quarterbacks and then putting together great defenses or putting the defenses in place and then getting the quarterback? This isn't a chicken and egg situation, as I've mentioned in previous blogs no team has won a Super Bowl in the past 20 years without a dominant defense or a defense that was dominant in the playoffs.

Let's assume for a second Ryan and Glenn Dorsey live up to expectations. Dorsey is still the one who helps you out in more positions right now than Ryan. Dorsey obviously helps out your run defense. He also can provide an interior rush that makes John Abraham and Jamal Anderson out on the edges. Abraham has always been at his best in Atlanta when Rod Coleman was pushing the pocket in the middle. Dorsey eats space and helps Keith Brooking run free. Brooking looked old and slow last year and was non existent in a lot of games because the tackles couldn't keep blockers off of him. The Falcons are starting a combination of a rookie, second year man and career back-up at Cornerback. A dominant pass rush would help them out tremendously. Glenn Dorsey (again, assuming he lives up to his potential) makes several players better around him immediately.

Matt Ryan, best case scenario, has a one year learning curve at Quarterback. He has an offensive line with maybe two guys you should feel comfortable going forward (Baker and Blalock) a running back with a ton of potential, but limited experience, one proven wide receiver, one rookie a lot of people are high on, no other receiving threats in your receiver corps and no tight end. There's potential Matt Ryan can help those guys get better, but the relationship between a quarterback and his supporting cast is symbiotic and right now the Falcons supporting cast just simply isn't good enough to help Matt Ryan succeed.

Falcons brass was impressed with how Ryan handled himself during the meeting process when OC Mike Mularkey and QB Coach Bill Musgrave had a work session with Ryan and he handled himself very well when they tried to trick him and confuse him. Problem is, football games are played on the field and not in the classroom. How will Matt Ryan handle situations when he's getting hit in the mouth every play? People love Matt Ryan's leadership skills and intangibles. Well, people also loved David Carr's leadership skills and intangibles. Several years later Carr has one foot out the door on an NFL career. It's hard to say how much of that is Carr and how much of it is the residual effect of the beating he took as Texans QB.

If the Falcons don't find a way to upgrade both lines soon Matt Ryan's career will more closely resemble David Carr's and Joey Harrington's rather than Brady's and Manning's. The new management of the Falcons said they were going to get bigger and stronger up the middle. So far that mission has not been accomplished and for that reason they are setting themselves up for failure.