Yeah, I know the blog has been dead, but I'm reviving it with top 5 lists periodically up until the start of the college football season. Today I look at the biggest storylines around the South as we get geared up for the 2008 season.
5. Will the ACC ever get better?
When the ACC added Miami, Virginia Tech and Boston College it was supposed to make a decent conference much better. Va Tech and BC both have helped at times, but the Canes have been by and large a disappointment since joining the league. I thought the ACC hit rock bottom when Wake Forest and Georgia Tech stunk up Jacksonville in the ACC title game two years ago, but can we say that by and large the conference is any better now? Clemson could be elite (more on them later) but other than Virginia Tech, who even coach Frank Beamer admits is re-tooling, can you count on anyone in the ACC to make waves? Matt Ryan is gone from BC, Virginia was a surprise last year, but a tumultuous offseason has left them scrambling to fill key spots, Florida State seems to chronically underachieve, Miami is restocking a cupboard of talent that is surprisingly bare, Georgia Tech is re-filling it's roster with players capable of running Paul Johnson's offense and nobody else really stands out. UNC could make a run at a conference championship game appearance this year the ACC is that wide open.
4. How will the Murderer's row of coaching affect the SEC standings?
Les Miles became the 5th SEC coach with a national title, Saban brought in maybe the best recruiting class in the nation, Richt and Meyer are supposed to compete for a national title, Tuberville continues to fly under the radar, Spurrier has a potentially sick defense, Nutt inherits a talented roster at Ole Miss, slimeball Petrino gets indoctrinated into the SEC. You could legitimately argue the SEC has 12 of the 40 best head coaches in America.
3. Is it Clemson's year?
Every year it seems as if Clemson is on the verge of finally winning the elusive ACC championship before crashing and burning in spectacular fashion. There is a lot to love about this Clemson team. The best running back tandem in the nation, one of the five best receivers in college football possibly, a school record breaking QB and a fast, aggressive defense returning eight starters. The offensive line is a huge question mark and if anything that could spell doom for the Tigers. They kick off the season in Atlanta against Alabama and if they can get by that stout test they should roll into a Thursday night game with Wake Forest on October 9th undefeated. That game, a roadie at Florida State and a rivalry game with South Carolina are the toughest tests on the schedule so all things considered it's pretty favorable. The big question is can the Tigers not trip over their own feet for a change. Last year it was a home game against Boston College. In 2006 it was a home loss to Maryland. What peril awaits the Tigers this year? There should be none. They should roll to an ACC title and an outside shot at a national title game birth, but this is Clemson, hold your breath.
2. Georgia vs. the World
Ok, it's not quite the world, but it is the nation's toughest schedule. Yes, they have a physical specimen of a quarterback, a spark plug of a running back a solid corp of elder receivers (and a freshman Mark Richt has compared to Randy Moss) a solid, but depleted offensive line and a defense as deep as any in college football. That said, at South Carolina, at Arizona State, Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, at LSU, Florida in Jacksonville, at Kentucky, at Auburn finish with Georgia Tech. Are you kidding me? Vandy and Kentucky are by far the weak links there, but both games are landmine games after brutal stretches. There are maybe three or four teams in the last decade that could stand a chance to run the table against that slate. This Georgia team isn't one of them.
1. Does Superman have an encore?
2007 was the year of Tebow. The Florida phenom went from Rock Star to Gator God becoming the first Sophomore to win a Heisman trophy. Heisman returnees have had an interesting place in college football in recent years. Both Jason White and Matt Leinart returned to school after winning Heisman trophies. Both had years comparable to their Heisman seasons statistically as seniors. Both were invited back to the Heisman ceremony. Both weren't even close to winning a second Heisman. There is little benefit for a Heisman winner in coming back. Instead of celebrating their greatness we try to break them down. We get bored with them. That explains why Leinart lost out to fellow Trojan Reggie Bush in 2005 and that's why I have a sneaking suspicion, for a variety of reason, Tebow could very well lose out to a Gator teammate. First of all, don't expect Tebow to shoulder as much of the load as he did in 2007. Urban Meyer wants to keep him fresher for a stretch run. The Gators, unlike last season, have a variety of running backs to help take the pressure of Tebow. Furthermore, if we get bored with Tebow we'll start looking for reasons why the Gators were so successful on offense that don't have to do with Tebow and one name will emerge: Percy Harvin. A 13-0 or 12-1 season for the Gators and a Gator will hoist the Heisman Trophy again in 2008 and it won't be Tim Tebow, it'll be Percy Harvin.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Monday, May 5, 2008
Where do they go from here?
So midnight struck predictably and emphatically for the Cinderella Atlanta Hawks yesterday after a resounding beatdown by the Celtics. Still, despite 45 regular season losses and four blowouts in Boston in the first round Atlanta won't soon forget the magic provided by the Hawks in games 3, 4 and 6. The Hawks did something incredible: they awoke the long dormant rabid basketball fan base in this city. That being said, awakening that fan base and sustaining that fan base are two totally different things.
There are four personnel issues that are critical this off-season and they need to be dealt with as swiftly as possible. The first and most critical is the front office situation. The contracts of GM Billy Knight and coach Mike Woodson expire on June 31. Knight has been an easy target for Atlanta's failures the past several seasons and there's no need to bring them up here (although Chris Paul did look pretty solid in Game 1 against San Antonio). Knight did make the moves needed to get the team to the playoffs (drafting Horford, trading for Bibby) but it's still hard to overlook the past. On top of that he and Woodson don't speak to each other.
Now, there doesn't seem to be a reason why they aren't talking. Sure, Knight tried to have Woodson fired several times during the season, but why would that put a strain on a working relationship? Woodson has been a target of mine for a couple of years now, but I'm starting to lean more to his side. I'm beginning to think the problems the Hawks have on the floor are 50 percent the players own lack of basketball sense and 50 percent Woodson's bad decision making. That's a drastic change. That percentage was at 80 percent Woody's fault at some point, so I've come around on him.
Woodson to me has to go. It's not necessarily fair, but it's business and the unfortunate thing is, decisions have to be made that aren't always fair. First and foremost, Woodson and Knight simply can't work together. If you replace Knight a new GM is going to want to bring in his own head coach. If you get rid of Knight and keep Woodson, Woodson has ownership on his side and you're undermining your new GM from day one. That's not a good business practice.
Secondly, like I said earlier, it's hard to know how much of Atlanta's inabilities and deficiencies on the court should be blamed on Woodson or the Players. You can make an argument for both and you'd be right blaming both. One eternal truth about sports rings true in this situation though: You can replace a coach, you can't replace 15 players (or 25 in baseball, 60 in the NFL etc). Again, it's not fair, but it's reality. Woodson did a dreadful job for the most part during the regular season, but for three magical games he pushed all the right buttons. In a realistic world, that won't be enough to save his job. Fortunately for him, the Atlanta Spirit Group doesn't always operate in a world of reality.
So what about the roster? Well, there are two major pieces up for grabs. Let's start with the easier one to assess: Josh Childress. Childress is an invaluable piece to this team as the 6th man bringing intensity and effort every time he's on the floor. He's one of the most basketball savvy guys on the team getting rebounds and put backs, not because of his size or strength necessarily, but because of his smarts around the basket. It'll be hard to lose Chill so ASG must make any attempt to keep him, but if someone tries to drive the price too high, it might not be worth it. Chill might be the casualty of this offseason. Fortunately, he's Larry Birded into Atlanta which means the Hawks can pay him more money than any other team. The big question is will they?
Then you get to the guy who truly might be the toughest player in the NBA to figure out: Josh Smith. J-Smoove, as he's known here, is a riddle wrapped up inside an enigma wrapped up inside a question mark covered in tattoos. One of the most electrifying players in the NBA without a doubt, he can bring down the house with a block or a dunk. He's a good defender and at times he's unstoppable on offense. Other times he's lazy, inconsistent, stubborn and ball hoggish. He falls in love with his deep jumper which can most favorably be considered mediocre. He's a sloppy ball handler and makes mind-bogglingly terrible passes from time to time. He can also be a malcontent as he's feuded with Woodson on several occasions. As much as you can rip on his game, one thing, to me anyway, is true: You have to give the man his money.
His potential is too great. You can't let a local kid with that much ability just walk away. At that point it leaves you with Joe Johnson and Al Horford as your core beyond next year, can you say rebuilding? You also can't run the risk of letting a 22 year old get away because of his inconsistency just to watch him blossom into a superstar somewhere else. Josh Smith is the Andruw Jones in the new millenium of Atlanta sports. Watching Jones you couldn't help but wonder if the guy would ever develop into one of the great stars in baseball. Jones had a unique skill (an unparalleled defensive ability), but was stubborn in his approach to offense and that kept him from being one of the best players of his generation. Smith has a unique skill set (again, watch him dunk or block a shot and tell me it doesn't raise the hairs on your arms) but the jury is out as to whether or not he'll "get it" or improve in the little areas that it takes to go from potential to superstardom.
Still though, if you want to have any hope of sustaining the momentum you built during this playoff run, you have to pay up. You also need to pay up to keep Childress unless the price is too high. As for the front office, realistically it's time for a new direction, this team is probably as good as they'll ever be under Woodson and Knight. If you bring in a new regime it will pump more fresh air into the franchise and excite people even more. If you do that, then you begin to focus on the smaller roster issues (more shooters? more depth?).
Then again, with the Atlanta Spirit in charge, we're probably looking at the Joshes walking and the most dysfunctional GM/Coach relationship is sports persisting.
There are four personnel issues that are critical this off-season and they need to be dealt with as swiftly as possible. The first and most critical is the front office situation. The contracts of GM Billy Knight and coach Mike Woodson expire on June 31. Knight has been an easy target for Atlanta's failures the past several seasons and there's no need to bring them up here (although Chris Paul did look pretty solid in Game 1 against San Antonio). Knight did make the moves needed to get the team to the playoffs (drafting Horford, trading for Bibby) but it's still hard to overlook the past. On top of that he and Woodson don't speak to each other.
Now, there doesn't seem to be a reason why they aren't talking. Sure, Knight tried to have Woodson fired several times during the season, but why would that put a strain on a working relationship? Woodson has been a target of mine for a couple of years now, but I'm starting to lean more to his side. I'm beginning to think the problems the Hawks have on the floor are 50 percent the players own lack of basketball sense and 50 percent Woodson's bad decision making. That's a drastic change. That percentage was at 80 percent Woody's fault at some point, so I've come around on him.
Woodson to me has to go. It's not necessarily fair, but it's business and the unfortunate thing is, decisions have to be made that aren't always fair. First and foremost, Woodson and Knight simply can't work together. If you replace Knight a new GM is going to want to bring in his own head coach. If you get rid of Knight and keep Woodson, Woodson has ownership on his side and you're undermining your new GM from day one. That's not a good business practice.
Secondly, like I said earlier, it's hard to know how much of Atlanta's inabilities and deficiencies on the court should be blamed on Woodson or the Players. You can make an argument for both and you'd be right blaming both. One eternal truth about sports rings true in this situation though: You can replace a coach, you can't replace 15 players (or 25 in baseball, 60 in the NFL etc). Again, it's not fair, but it's reality. Woodson did a dreadful job for the most part during the regular season, but for three magical games he pushed all the right buttons. In a realistic world, that won't be enough to save his job. Fortunately for him, the Atlanta Spirit Group doesn't always operate in a world of reality.
So what about the roster? Well, there are two major pieces up for grabs. Let's start with the easier one to assess: Josh Childress. Childress is an invaluable piece to this team as the 6th man bringing intensity and effort every time he's on the floor. He's one of the most basketball savvy guys on the team getting rebounds and put backs, not because of his size or strength necessarily, but because of his smarts around the basket. It'll be hard to lose Chill so ASG must make any attempt to keep him, but if someone tries to drive the price too high, it might not be worth it. Chill might be the casualty of this offseason. Fortunately, he's Larry Birded into Atlanta which means the Hawks can pay him more money than any other team. The big question is will they?
Then you get to the guy who truly might be the toughest player in the NBA to figure out: Josh Smith. J-Smoove, as he's known here, is a riddle wrapped up inside an enigma wrapped up inside a question mark covered in tattoos. One of the most electrifying players in the NBA without a doubt, he can bring down the house with a block or a dunk. He's a good defender and at times he's unstoppable on offense. Other times he's lazy, inconsistent, stubborn and ball hoggish. He falls in love with his deep jumper which can most favorably be considered mediocre. He's a sloppy ball handler and makes mind-bogglingly terrible passes from time to time. He can also be a malcontent as he's feuded with Woodson on several occasions. As much as you can rip on his game, one thing, to me anyway, is true: You have to give the man his money.
His potential is too great. You can't let a local kid with that much ability just walk away. At that point it leaves you with Joe Johnson and Al Horford as your core beyond next year, can you say rebuilding? You also can't run the risk of letting a 22 year old get away because of his inconsistency just to watch him blossom into a superstar somewhere else. Josh Smith is the Andruw Jones in the new millenium of Atlanta sports. Watching Jones you couldn't help but wonder if the guy would ever develop into one of the great stars in baseball. Jones had a unique skill (an unparalleled defensive ability), but was stubborn in his approach to offense and that kept him from being one of the best players of his generation. Smith has a unique skill set (again, watch him dunk or block a shot and tell me it doesn't raise the hairs on your arms) but the jury is out as to whether or not he'll "get it" or improve in the little areas that it takes to go from potential to superstardom.
Still though, if you want to have any hope of sustaining the momentum you built during this playoff run, you have to pay up. You also need to pay up to keep Childress unless the price is too high. As for the front office, realistically it's time for a new direction, this team is probably as good as they'll ever be under Woodson and Knight. If you bring in a new regime it will pump more fresh air into the franchise and excite people even more. If you do that, then you begin to focus on the smaller roster issues (more shooters? more depth?).
Then again, with the Atlanta Spirit in charge, we're probably looking at the Joshes walking and the most dysfunctional GM/Coach relationship is sports persisting.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Not Buyin' Ryan
We can speculate all we want, but we won't know what kind of NFL player Matt Ryan is for at least three years. Hopefully we'll look back on this post three years from now and laugh. Unfortunately, Matt Ryan had better make several pro bowls or his drafting will be another in a long history of disasters for the Atlanta Falcons franchise. Throughout the weekend those that championed the pick made one point time and time again:
This pretty much closes the door on the Michael Vick era in Atlanta.
Uh uh. Not by a long shot.
Drafting a quarterback doesn't close the door on anything. Brian Griese, Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler haven't erased the memory of John Elway in Denver. Jay Fiedler, Ken Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerrote, Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon haven't made Miami fans forget about Dan Marino. Drafting Matt Ryan isn't going to make people forget at #7 in Atlanta.
There is only one way people in this town will ever be over the positives and negatives of the Michael Vick era.
Winning.
In case you haven't noticed, that's not something the Falcons franchise has been good at historically. I'm not going to regurgitate the statistics of futility, at this point they're practically tattooed on the foreheads of Falcons fans everywhere. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, than the Falcons management belongs in an asylum.
It's not sexy and it's overly cliche, but the game of football is won in the trenches. Ask the New York Giants about that. It's such a simple concept, so why have the Falcons been so negligent in that regard?
Yes, they drafted Offensive Tackle Sam Baker in the first round and paid a hefty sum to do so, but that was the first time in 15 years the Falcons drafted an offensive lineman in the first round. In those 15 years the Falcons spent a first day selection on offensive linemen just four times (1994 3rd rounder Alai Kalaniuvalu, 1998 2nd rounder Bob Hallen, 2000 2nd rounder Travis Claridge, 2007 second rounder Justin Blalock). They've been about as negligent when it comes to drafting interior defensive linemen. In the past 15 years the Falcons have spent one first rounder (Shannon Brown 1996) on the defensive tackle position and just two total first day picks on defensive tackles (Johnathan Babineaux the other).
With a few rare exceptions the Falcons have ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing defense every year since 1993. They also traditionally rank near the bottom of the league in rushing and sacks allowed. The exception of course was when they had the most dynamic quarterback in league history. Even so while the rushing numbers thrived with Vick, the sacks and sacks-per-pass attempt numbers were still pretty bad.
People will say you can't win without a good quarterback. I'd respond by saying, "Then why do Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have Super Bowl rings?" But being less snarky I'd say, well look at guys like Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. Which came first, the Steelers and the Giants drafting franchise Quarterbacks and then putting together great defenses or putting the defenses in place and then getting the quarterback? This isn't a chicken and egg situation, as I've mentioned in previous blogs no team has won a Super Bowl in the past 20 years without a dominant defense or a defense that was dominant in the playoffs.
Let's assume for a second Ryan and Glenn Dorsey live up to expectations. Dorsey is still the one who helps you out in more positions right now than Ryan. Dorsey obviously helps out your run defense. He also can provide an interior rush that makes John Abraham and Jamal Anderson out on the edges. Abraham has always been at his best in Atlanta when Rod Coleman was pushing the pocket in the middle. Dorsey eats space and helps Keith Brooking run free. Brooking looked old and slow last year and was non existent in a lot of games because the tackles couldn't keep blockers off of him. The Falcons are starting a combination of a rookie, second year man and career back-up at Cornerback. A dominant pass rush would help them out tremendously. Glenn Dorsey (again, assuming he lives up to his potential) makes several players better around him immediately.
Matt Ryan, best case scenario, has a one year learning curve at Quarterback. He has an offensive line with maybe two guys you should feel comfortable going forward (Baker and Blalock) a running back with a ton of potential, but limited experience, one proven wide receiver, one rookie a lot of people are high on, no other receiving threats in your receiver corps and no tight end. There's potential Matt Ryan can help those guys get better, but the relationship between a quarterback and his supporting cast is symbiotic and right now the Falcons supporting cast just simply isn't good enough to help Matt Ryan succeed.
Falcons brass was impressed with how Ryan handled himself during the meeting process when OC Mike Mularkey and QB Coach Bill Musgrave had a work session with Ryan and he handled himself very well when they tried to trick him and confuse him. Problem is, football games are played on the field and not in the classroom. How will Matt Ryan handle situations when he's getting hit in the mouth every play? People love Matt Ryan's leadership skills and intangibles. Well, people also loved David Carr's leadership skills and intangibles. Several years later Carr has one foot out the door on an NFL career. It's hard to say how much of that is Carr and how much of it is the residual effect of the beating he took as Texans QB.
If the Falcons don't find a way to upgrade both lines soon Matt Ryan's career will more closely resemble David Carr's and Joey Harrington's rather than Brady's and Manning's. The new management of the Falcons said they were going to get bigger and stronger up the middle. So far that mission has not been accomplished and for that reason they are setting themselves up for failure.
This pretty much closes the door on the Michael Vick era in Atlanta.
Uh uh. Not by a long shot.
Drafting a quarterback doesn't close the door on anything. Brian Griese, Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler haven't erased the memory of John Elway in Denver. Jay Fiedler, Ken Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feeley, Gus Frerrote, Daunte Culpepper and Cleo Lemon haven't made Miami fans forget about Dan Marino. Drafting Matt Ryan isn't going to make people forget at #7 in Atlanta.
There is only one way people in this town will ever be over the positives and negatives of the Michael Vick era.
Winning.
In case you haven't noticed, that's not something the Falcons franchise has been good at historically. I'm not going to regurgitate the statistics of futility, at this point they're practically tattooed on the foreheads of Falcons fans everywhere. If the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results, than the Falcons management belongs in an asylum.
It's not sexy and it's overly cliche, but the game of football is won in the trenches. Ask the New York Giants about that. It's such a simple concept, so why have the Falcons been so negligent in that regard?
Yes, they drafted Offensive Tackle Sam Baker in the first round and paid a hefty sum to do so, but that was the first time in 15 years the Falcons drafted an offensive lineman in the first round. In those 15 years the Falcons spent a first day selection on offensive linemen just four times (1994 3rd rounder Alai Kalaniuvalu, 1998 2nd rounder Bob Hallen, 2000 2nd rounder Travis Claridge, 2007 second rounder Justin Blalock). They've been about as negligent when it comes to drafting interior defensive linemen. In the past 15 years the Falcons have spent one first rounder (Shannon Brown 1996) on the defensive tackle position and just two total first day picks on defensive tackles (Johnathan Babineaux the other).
With a few rare exceptions the Falcons have ranked near the bottom of the league in rushing defense every year since 1993. They also traditionally rank near the bottom of the league in rushing and sacks allowed. The exception of course was when they had the most dynamic quarterback in league history. Even so while the rushing numbers thrived with Vick, the sacks and sacks-per-pass attempt numbers were still pretty bad.
People will say you can't win without a good quarterback. I'd respond by saying, "Then why do Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson have Super Bowl rings?" But being less snarky I'd say, well look at guys like Roethlisberger and Eli Manning. Which came first, the Steelers and the Giants drafting franchise Quarterbacks and then putting together great defenses or putting the defenses in place and then getting the quarterback? This isn't a chicken and egg situation, as I've mentioned in previous blogs no team has won a Super Bowl in the past 20 years without a dominant defense or a defense that was dominant in the playoffs.
Let's assume for a second Ryan and Glenn Dorsey live up to expectations. Dorsey is still the one who helps you out in more positions right now than Ryan. Dorsey obviously helps out your run defense. He also can provide an interior rush that makes John Abraham and Jamal Anderson out on the edges. Abraham has always been at his best in Atlanta when Rod Coleman was pushing the pocket in the middle. Dorsey eats space and helps Keith Brooking run free. Brooking looked old and slow last year and was non existent in a lot of games because the tackles couldn't keep blockers off of him. The Falcons are starting a combination of a rookie, second year man and career back-up at Cornerback. A dominant pass rush would help them out tremendously. Glenn Dorsey (again, assuming he lives up to his potential) makes several players better around him immediately.
Matt Ryan, best case scenario, has a one year learning curve at Quarterback. He has an offensive line with maybe two guys you should feel comfortable going forward (Baker and Blalock) a running back with a ton of potential, but limited experience, one proven wide receiver, one rookie a lot of people are high on, no other receiving threats in your receiver corps and no tight end. There's potential Matt Ryan can help those guys get better, but the relationship between a quarterback and his supporting cast is symbiotic and right now the Falcons supporting cast just simply isn't good enough to help Matt Ryan succeed.
Falcons brass was impressed with how Ryan handled himself during the meeting process when OC Mike Mularkey and QB Coach Bill Musgrave had a work session with Ryan and he handled himself very well when they tried to trick him and confuse him. Problem is, football games are played on the field and not in the classroom. How will Matt Ryan handle situations when he's getting hit in the mouth every play? People love Matt Ryan's leadership skills and intangibles. Well, people also loved David Carr's leadership skills and intangibles. Several years later Carr has one foot out the door on an NFL career. It's hard to say how much of that is Carr and how much of it is the residual effect of the beating he took as Texans QB.
If the Falcons don't find a way to upgrade both lines soon Matt Ryan's career will more closely resemble David Carr's and Joey Harrington's rather than Brady's and Manning's. The new management of the Falcons said they were going to get bigger and stronger up the middle. So far that mission has not been accomplished and for that reason they are setting themselves up for failure.
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Hawks-Celtics First Round Breakdown
Half of me says why even bother, but the other half of me is excited to talk about something other than the Braves pitching staff being put together with duct tape and how bad the Falcons are, so I thought I'd give a man for man match-up in the first round series.
Point Guard
Rajon Rondo vs. Mike Bibby
The big question mark and undoubtedly the biggest x-factor in a title run for Boston is Rondo. He's an incredibly talented player, but, pun intended, he's green when it comes to the playoffs. I guess there is reason for optimism when your Point Guard has a ton more experience than his counterpart, but if you saw the last game these two teams played, the beat up, worn out Bibby couldn't keep Rondo in front of him and Rondo did pretty much whatever he wants. The experience factor keeps this match up closer than it is based on performance.
Edge: Boston (slight)
Shooting Guard
Ray Allen vs. Joe Johnson
The Hawks broke the bank to sign Johnson a few years ago and it paid dividends down the stretch this season when Joe played like an All-Star and a warrior to lead the team into the playoffs. Allen is the third banana, but a dangerous one who despite his advancing age is a dangerous 3 point threat any night. It's bad news for the Hawks when their best player isn't head and shoulders above the guy he's matched up with.
Edge: Atlanta (slight)
Small Forward
Paul Pierce vs. Marvin Williams
Hey, did you know the Hawks could have drafted Chris Paul or Deron Williams?
Edge: Boston (significant)
Power Forward
Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith
Josh Smith is a very talented player. This one isn't close.
Edge: Boston (significant)
Center
Kendrick Perkins vs. Al Hoford
The people's choice for rookie of the year is a better scorer, rebounder and passer. That's pretty cut and dry.
Edge: Atlanta (moderate)
Bench
Boston's bench beat Atlanta in the 4th quarter the other night. The Hawks don't have a bench.
Edge: Boston (Significant)
Coach
Doc Rivers vs. Mike Woodson
I'd take Isiah Thomas over Mike Woodson in a one game situation (presuming Isiah didn't put his team together himself). I don't know what further indictment I can give Woody.
Edge: Boston (Significant)
Best Case Scenario for Atlanta
Playoff jitters get to Rondo, Garnett's past playoff failures make him tight. Joe Johnson is on fire. Bibby is clutch. Josh Smith plays like a guy looking for a big contract. Horford dominates Perkins. Hawks lose in 5 games, all of which come down to the wire.
Worst Case Scenario for the Hawks
Whatever it is, expect it to unfold in this series.
The Pick
Even if everything goes wrong for Boston in this series, they're still playing Atlanta and Mike Woodson will find a way to neutralize any advantages Atlanta might cook up. It's great Atlanta has made the playoffs and hopefully can build on it this offseason. However, in this situation the outlook ain't rosy.
Boston in 4.
Point Guard
Rajon Rondo vs. Mike Bibby
The big question mark and undoubtedly the biggest x-factor in a title run for Boston is Rondo. He's an incredibly talented player, but, pun intended, he's green when it comes to the playoffs. I guess there is reason for optimism when your Point Guard has a ton more experience than his counterpart, but if you saw the last game these two teams played, the beat up, worn out Bibby couldn't keep Rondo in front of him and Rondo did pretty much whatever he wants. The experience factor keeps this match up closer than it is based on performance.
Edge: Boston (slight)
Shooting Guard
Ray Allen vs. Joe Johnson
The Hawks broke the bank to sign Johnson a few years ago and it paid dividends down the stretch this season when Joe played like an All-Star and a warrior to lead the team into the playoffs. Allen is the third banana, but a dangerous one who despite his advancing age is a dangerous 3 point threat any night. It's bad news for the Hawks when their best player isn't head and shoulders above the guy he's matched up with.
Edge: Atlanta (slight)
Small Forward
Paul Pierce vs. Marvin Williams
Hey, did you know the Hawks could have drafted Chris Paul or Deron Williams?
Edge: Boston (significant)
Power Forward
Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith
Josh Smith is a very talented player. This one isn't close.
Edge: Boston (significant)
Center
Kendrick Perkins vs. Al Hoford
The people's choice for rookie of the year is a better scorer, rebounder and passer. That's pretty cut and dry.
Edge: Atlanta (moderate)
Bench
Boston's bench beat Atlanta in the 4th quarter the other night. The Hawks don't have a bench.
Edge: Boston (Significant)
Coach
Doc Rivers vs. Mike Woodson
I'd take Isiah Thomas over Mike Woodson in a one game situation (presuming Isiah didn't put his team together himself). I don't know what further indictment I can give Woody.
Edge: Boston (Significant)
Best Case Scenario for Atlanta
Playoff jitters get to Rondo, Garnett's past playoff failures make him tight. Joe Johnson is on fire. Bibby is clutch. Josh Smith plays like a guy looking for a big contract. Horford dominates Perkins. Hawks lose in 5 games, all of which come down to the wire.
Worst Case Scenario for the Hawks
Whatever it is, expect it to unfold in this series.
The Pick
Even if everything goes wrong for Boston in this series, they're still playing Atlanta and Mike Woodson will find a way to neutralize any advantages Atlanta might cook up. It's great Atlanta has made the playoffs and hopefully can build on it this offseason. However, in this situation the outlook ain't rosy.
Boston in 4.
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Moooovin on Up, to the Eastside, finally got a piece of the pie!
Drink it in Atlanta. DRINK. IT. IN.
For the first time since 1999 the Atlanta Hawks are playoff bound. Thanks to their resounding win over...ok, so it took Indiana losing to Washington last night for the Hawks to clinch that elusive playoff spot. Someone asked me a fair question the other day: Is Atlanta making the playoffs a credit to the Hawks or an indictment of the Eastern Conference?
Obviously, with the Hawks guaranteed of making the playoffs with a losing record it is a fair indictment of the bottom half of the conference which has been flat out atrocious this season, but why is it in sports that we have to have absolute answers? I've never understood this "either/or" mentality. Was Tiger Woods mortal and the rest of the field unspectacular at the Masters? Certainly, but Trevor Immelman played so well for three days that he was able to struggle a little bit Sunday and still win. Did Memphis choke away a national championship in basketball? Absolutely, but Kansas made huge plays down the stretch and played incredible defense keeping Memphis from scoring to give themselves a chance.
I could go on, but you get my point, while the bottom half of the East is terrible, the Hawks deserve some credit for surviving the muck. The reality is that everybody has to play the same competition and the Hawks were just a little bit better than Indiana, New Jersey and Chicago. Since acquiring Mike Bibby the hawks are 15-14. In that time, Joe Johnson has averaged 24.5 points per game, Bibby has hit big shots in several big games to help Atlanta win and supporting characters Al Horford, Josh Smith and Josh Childress have all shined at times.
Yes, it took way too long for the Hawks to get back the playoffs. Yes, it was thanks in large part due to the incredible mediocrity of the Eastern Conference. Yes, with the Joshes unsigned for next year and Bibby beyond next year the future is uncertain. Yes, Joe and Bibby are running on fumes. Yes, the rest of the starting cast has beyond Horford has been terribly inconsistent and Yes, the Hawks have no bench to speak of. All that being true, the Hawks are in the playoffs and that's an achievement for the much maligned franchise and since their first round draft pick goes to Phoenix making the Playoffs is MUCH better than the alternative.
Monday, April 14, 2008
The Monday Replay
Tiger Woods wins the Masters..wait, he didn't?
I thought it was a sure thing he was going to win all four majors this year? Some guy named Trevor Immelman shot an incredible 75 Sunday to win by three strokes. That's right, he was three over par and still won comfortably at -8. Basically everyone around him choked and Tiger was just mortal shooting even par 72. They say the Masters doesn't start until the back 9 on Sunday, well Immelman made just enough shots on that stretch Sunday I suppose, but I think being 11 under par through three rounds had as much to do with it as anything. I'm dogging him I suppose, but seriously there have been bigger collapses in history and he maintained his composure every time the collar got tight and rallied and that's not easy to do. Perhaps this is a dawn of a new rival for Tiger, but I doubt it and as frustrating as it might be for Eldrick, all he can do is set his sights on crushing the field at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Seeing as how He's won the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines four years in a row and five of the last six, something tells me he'll be the favorite.
Hawks still waiting to clinch 8th playoff spot
The stage was set up perfectly for the Hawks Saturday night at the highlight factory. With Charlotte clinging to a victory in Indianapolis the Hawks had a chance to clinch the 8th seed in the East with a win over Boston. The Celtics starters led Boston to a 55-44 halftime lead, but Josh Smith and Al Horford responded with a combined 23 to even the score after three. Boston then pulled the Big 3 opening the door for the Hawks, who in typical Hawks fashion, were unable to seal the deal. The Hawks jumped to an 84-80 lead then 74 year old Sam Cassell went nuts and Boston finished on a 19-5 run to win by ten. Still, with the Indy loss, the Hawks magic number is one and could have the spot locked down before taking the floor with Orlando tomorrow night. Washington clings to life for home court advantage in the first round so if the Wiz take care of Indiana at home tonight, the Hawks are going to end the longest playoff drought in the league.
Ow, my groin
The Braves starting rotation took another hit as Mike Hampton went down with an injury. Wait sorry, I'm just conditioned to typing that sentence. Actually it was 42 year old Tom Glavine who didn't make it out of the first inning before tweaking a groin muscle. The team is taking a wait and see approach, but here's guessing a 42 year old's groin ain't gonna heal overnight, so for the time being, the Braves are back to where they were last year: Smoltz and Hudson and pray for...somethin? I dunno, it doesn't just roll of the tongue like "Spahn and Sain and pry for rain" does. Well, maybe Jo-Jo Reyes is ready to be a major league starter...yeah I'm not holding my breath either.
I thought it was a sure thing he was going to win all four majors this year? Some guy named Trevor Immelman shot an incredible 75 Sunday to win by three strokes. That's right, he was three over par and still won comfortably at -8. Basically everyone around him choked and Tiger was just mortal shooting even par 72. They say the Masters doesn't start until the back 9 on Sunday, well Immelman made just enough shots on that stretch Sunday I suppose, but I think being 11 under par through three rounds had as much to do with it as anything. I'm dogging him I suppose, but seriously there have been bigger collapses in history and he maintained his composure every time the collar got tight and rallied and that's not easy to do. Perhaps this is a dawn of a new rival for Tiger, but I doubt it and as frustrating as it might be for Eldrick, all he can do is set his sights on crushing the field at the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines. Seeing as how He's won the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines four years in a row and five of the last six, something tells me he'll be the favorite.
Hawks still waiting to clinch 8th playoff spot
The stage was set up perfectly for the Hawks Saturday night at the highlight factory. With Charlotte clinging to a victory in Indianapolis the Hawks had a chance to clinch the 8th seed in the East with a win over Boston. The Celtics starters led Boston to a 55-44 halftime lead, but Josh Smith and Al Horford responded with a combined 23 to even the score after three. Boston then pulled the Big 3 opening the door for the Hawks, who in typical Hawks fashion, were unable to seal the deal. The Hawks jumped to an 84-80 lead then 74 year old Sam Cassell went nuts and Boston finished on a 19-5 run to win by ten. Still, with the Indy loss, the Hawks magic number is one and could have the spot locked down before taking the floor with Orlando tomorrow night. Washington clings to life for home court advantage in the first round so if the Wiz take care of Indiana at home tonight, the Hawks are going to end the longest playoff drought in the league.
Ow, my groin
The Braves starting rotation took another hit as Mike Hampton went down with an injury. Wait sorry, I'm just conditioned to typing that sentence. Actually it was 42 year old Tom Glavine who didn't make it out of the first inning before tweaking a groin muscle. The team is taking a wait and see approach, but here's guessing a 42 year old's groin ain't gonna heal overnight, so for the time being, the Braves are back to where they were last year: Smoltz and Hudson and pray for...somethin? I dunno, it doesn't just roll of the tongue like "Spahn and Sain and pry for rain" does. Well, maybe Jo-Jo Reyes is ready to be a major league starter...yeah I'm not holding my breath either.
Monday, April 7, 2008
Monday quick hits
In Rose I trust
On the December 29th Instant Replay I predicted John Calipari's Memphis team would cut down the nets in San Antonio. For some reason I listened to the "experts" and went homer and picked UCLA to win it all and Memphis to lose to Texas. That's what I get for not trusting myself. Kansas-Memphis should be an outstanding game (how many blowouts have we said that about in this tournament?) so when it's close, go with the best player on the floor and in this tournament it has been this man:
Freshman phenom PG Derrick Rose has been phenomenal in the tournament embarrassing a who's who of college basketball point guards
first in the Sweet 16 there was four year starter and All-Big 10 first teamer Drew Neitzel. Then in the Elite 8 it was First team All-American D.J. Augustin and then in the Final 4 he lit Pac-10 defensive player of the year Russell Westbrook to the tune of 25 points, 9 rebounds and four assists. Kansas' Russell Robinson is next on Rose's hit list.
I think both teams are good enough to muck the game up defensively, so I like Memphis 79-70, all of the starters go pro and five years from now they all admit they got paid to go to Memphis.
Smoltz rises to the challenge again
Never mind that he only pitched one time in the Spring with Johan Santana making his debut in the Mets/Braves rivalry, Smoltz rose to the occasion with a sore shoulder and pitched well enough to eke out a win. Both pitchers were great and Mark Teixeira came up huge with a two run bomb in the 8th and a game saving diving stop to finish off the Mets in the 9th. The Braves are 3-3 after the first week of the season and had a chance to win all 6 games. You can't really make much of the first week of the season, but you have to love watching Smoltz go out there and give his all like it's October.
Michael Vick's Longest Yard
So according to the New York Daily News, piggybacking on a story first reported in the AJC, Michael Vick and Arthur Blank have written letters to each other since Vick was incarcerated in Leavenworth Prison. According to the Daily News, Vick stays in shape by participating in Prison Yard football games. To keep things fair, Vick plays quarterback for both teams. It wasn't originally planned that way, but the team that drafted was complaining about his TD to INT ratio so they thought it would only be fair to make him play for both sides.
Blank says "Never say Never" in regards to Michael Vick's future and while it's highly unlikely Vick will ever suit up for the Dirty Birds again, for the league minimum and low risk involved if you honestly believe he's a rehabilitated human being why not give him a chance?
On the December 29th Instant Replay I predicted John Calipari's Memphis team would cut down the nets in San Antonio. For some reason I listened to the "experts" and went homer and picked UCLA to win it all and Memphis to lose to Texas. That's what I get for not trusting myself. Kansas-Memphis should be an outstanding game (how many blowouts have we said that about in this tournament?) so when it's close, go with the best player on the floor and in this tournament it has been this man:
Freshman phenom PG Derrick Rose has been phenomenal in the tournament embarrassing a who's who of college basketball point guards
first in the Sweet 16 there was four year starter and All-Big 10 first teamer Drew Neitzel. Then in the Elite 8 it was First team All-American D.J. Augustin and then in the Final 4 he lit Pac-10 defensive player of the year Russell Westbrook to the tune of 25 points, 9 rebounds and four assists. Kansas' Russell Robinson is next on Rose's hit list.
I think both teams are good enough to muck the game up defensively, so I like Memphis 79-70, all of the starters go pro and five years from now they all admit they got paid to go to Memphis.
Smoltz rises to the challenge again
Never mind that he only pitched one time in the Spring with Johan Santana making his debut in the Mets/Braves rivalry, Smoltz rose to the occasion with a sore shoulder and pitched well enough to eke out a win. Both pitchers were great and Mark Teixeira came up huge with a two run bomb in the 8th and a game saving diving stop to finish off the Mets in the 9th. The Braves are 3-3 after the first week of the season and had a chance to win all 6 games. You can't really make much of the first week of the season, but you have to love watching Smoltz go out there and give his all like it's October.
Michael Vick's Longest Yard
So according to the New York Daily News, piggybacking on a story first reported in the AJC, Michael Vick and Arthur Blank have written letters to each other since Vick was incarcerated in Leavenworth Prison. According to the Daily News, Vick stays in shape by participating in Prison Yard football games. To keep things fair, Vick plays quarterback for both teams. It wasn't originally planned that way, but the team that drafted was complaining about his TD to INT ratio so they thought it would only be fair to make him play for both sides.
Blank says "Never say Never" in regards to Michael Vick's future and while it's highly unlikely Vick will ever suit up for the Dirty Birds again, for the league minimum and low risk involved if you honestly believe he's a rehabilitated human being why not give him a chance?
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