The point has been beaten to death: The Hawks should have drafted Chris Paul or Deron Williams instead of Marvin Williams. It's almost as if Marvin's middle name is Chrispaulorderonwilliams. I've always been one of Marvin's biggest supporters. He's a nice guy and got a bad rap because he wasn't developing into a star as quickly as Paul or Deron Williams. Marvin is just 21 and in his third year as a pro. He missed a quarter of his second season with a broken hand. Still, in his third year he was expected to take the next jump and it looked as if that was going to happen.
Through January Marvin only had one game in which he scored fewer than 10 points. Not even All-Star Joe Johnson could boast that claim. However Marvin's points per game dipped from 16.7 in January to 11.7 in February. He's inched that number up to 12.0 in March. Furthermore, it looks like his confidence has decreased over the past couple of months. He had a dreadful February shooting barely 35 percent from the floor. He tenses up in late game situations and is a turnover machine in the 4th quarter of tight ball games.
The knock on Marvin was never his skill level. There were some people who were concerned with his work ethic. I can't speak for him so I can't criticize him for that, but it is hanging over head. He needs to get stronger to become more of a force on the glass. He's an ok rebounder, but for a guy that big and athletic he should be a better rebounder. He's got a good mid-range game, but he's not a three point shooter and he doesn't really have any post moves either.
Is it fair to hold Marvin up against the standards set by other players in the draft? Well, when Chris Paul averages 25 points and nearly 13 assists per game in March while trying to push his team to the top seed in the brutal Western Conference, it's unfortunate, but fair to compare.
With 12 games to go and the Hawks clinging to the 8th playoff spot in the East the onus is on Marvin Williams to make an impact. The Hawks need someone to help take the pressure off Joe Johnson late in games and it's time for Marvin to make his impact. If he can't do it, the Hawks need to seriously pursue a trade this offseason.
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Tuesday, March 11, 2008
The Play-In Game
So Joe Lunardi was on the radio this morning in Atlanta talking about the tournament (obviously) and one of the hosts started griping about conference tournaments and that teams like San Diego and whoever win the Sun Belt (with S. Alabama getting upset last night) playing a great week of basketball and getting in. Well, Lunardi shut him down, but it got me thinking about the play-in game.
The play-in game is a joke. ESPN and the tournament people try to convince us that it's important, but it's really not. They usually match a historically black college against some other spare Mid Major team. The winner goes on to get whipped by a #1 seed. It's a pointless venture and to me takes away a little bit of the charm of what makes March Madness great. Yes, these teams are sacrificial lambs, but to them, making the field of 64 and getting to participate in a Thursday or Friday game is a huge thrill for these teams.
Lunardi made a great point this morning, he said that while the major conference bubble teams are better than most of the small conference champions, they also have a ton of chances to secure their spot in the field and if they haven't they have no one to blame but themselves. He said that after last night, Ohio State is the last team in his field and Florida is sitting at 68th (I think). That really sparked something in me.
The "Play-in" Game should be between the last two at-large teams.
Once the field is seeded, figure out what the last at large seed is. According to his Bracketology Today it was defending national runner up Ohio State who is the 12 seed in the South. So if that's how it falls on selection Sunday, instead of having the SWAC champ and the Big Sky champ battle for irrelevancy, let two major programs play for that last at large bid, which currently is the 12 seed in the South. If Ohio St is 65 and Florida is 66, that would be infinitely better for a play in game than anything else.
The play-in game is a joke. ESPN and the tournament people try to convince us that it's important, but it's really not. They usually match a historically black college against some other spare Mid Major team. The winner goes on to get whipped by a #1 seed. It's a pointless venture and to me takes away a little bit of the charm of what makes March Madness great. Yes, these teams are sacrificial lambs, but to them, making the field of 64 and getting to participate in a Thursday or Friday game is a huge thrill for these teams.
Lunardi made a great point this morning, he said that while the major conference bubble teams are better than most of the small conference champions, they also have a ton of chances to secure their spot in the field and if they haven't they have no one to blame but themselves. He said that after last night, Ohio State is the last team in his field and Florida is sitting at 68th (I think). That really sparked something in me.
The "Play-in" Game should be between the last two at-large teams.
Once the field is seeded, figure out what the last at large seed is. According to his Bracketology Today it was defending national runner up Ohio State who is the 12 seed in the South. So if that's how it falls on selection Sunday, instead of having the SWAC champ and the Big Sky champ battle for irrelevancy, let two major programs play for that last at large bid, which currently is the 12 seed in the South. If Ohio St is 65 and Florida is 66, that would be infinitely better for a play in game than anything else.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
My endorsement
So supposedly there are some Democratic primaries going on today, but those aren't important. With Darren McFadden out of the equation I must turn my attention to someone new for the Falcons to draft, but after much thought as of today March 4, 2008 I endorse this man
LSU defensive tackle, Glenn Dorsey. Now, no one has clamored for the need for a dominant Offensive Tackle as much as I have, but the old cliche in football rings true in it's simplest form: Defense wins championships.
As great as Eli Manning was in the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl, the Giants don't stand a chance in that game if they don't have a dominant performance from their front four. I love Vince Young, but he didn't make progress as a quarterback this year, yet the Titans went 10-6 primarily due to a dominant defensive line, led by mammoth tackle Albert Haynesworth.
Unless you can snag a pro-bowl quarterback in free agency and totally revamp your offensive line, building a dominant front unit, it's hard to completely turn around a dreadful offense. Even if you have a great offense, how many teams have won titles without a great defense in the past decade? The Rams in 2000 are the only one that comes to mind. The next year the Ravens had one of the great defenses of all time. The Patriots built a dynasty with a great foundation on defense. So were the Steelers and Giants. The Colts finally won a title because their defense was very much improved.
Dorsey would fill a HUGE need. The Falcons have three DT's on the roster right now, the best of whom (Trey Lewis) is coming off major knee surgery. They need depth at that position desperately.
Would I be heartbroken if we end up drafting Jake Long? No. Matt Ryan? I'd never forgive them. But Glenn Dorsey makes the most sense. With a great defense, the Falcons can turn their fortunes around more quickly than any other way. With a GM from the Patriots organization and a coach from the Jaguars organization, hopefully my plan can come to fruition.
LSU defensive tackle, Glenn Dorsey. Now, no one has clamored for the need for a dominant Offensive Tackle as much as I have, but the old cliche in football rings true in it's simplest form: Defense wins championships.
As great as Eli Manning was in the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl, the Giants don't stand a chance in that game if they don't have a dominant performance from their front four. I love Vince Young, but he didn't make progress as a quarterback this year, yet the Titans went 10-6 primarily due to a dominant defensive line, led by mammoth tackle Albert Haynesworth.
Unless you can snag a pro-bowl quarterback in free agency and totally revamp your offensive line, building a dominant front unit, it's hard to completely turn around a dreadful offense. Even if you have a great offense, how many teams have won titles without a great defense in the past decade? The Rams in 2000 are the only one that comes to mind. The next year the Ravens had one of the great defenses of all time. The Patriots built a dynasty with a great foundation on defense. So were the Steelers and Giants. The Colts finally won a title because their defense was very much improved.
Dorsey would fill a HUGE need. The Falcons have three DT's on the roster right now, the best of whom (Trey Lewis) is coming off major knee surgery. They need depth at that position desperately.
Would I be heartbroken if we end up drafting Jake Long? No. Matt Ryan? I'd never forgive them. But Glenn Dorsey makes the most sense. With a great defense, the Falcons can turn their fortunes around more quickly than any other way. With a GM from the Patriots organization and a coach from the Jaguars organization, hopefully my plan can come to fruition.
Monday, March 3, 2008
Draft Needs
So we're now less than two months away from the greatest event in televised sports, the NFL Draft. With Free Agency in full swing the Falcons landed four players this weekend (Michael Turner, TE Ben Hartsock, CB Von Hutchens and S Erik Coleman) There might be a few more moves made (OG Maurice Williams appears to be in the mix), but it's time to start shifting focus towards the draft. Obviously after such a dreadful season and relative roster purge, this draft is huge for the Falcons. Unfortunately for the Falcons, there are so many areas of need that there's not one quick fix player to put them in playoff contention. Fortunately for the Falcons, there are so many areas of need that they can't really go wrong in any direction...unless they want to cripple their franchise by drafting Matt Ryan. Before we get into all the debates over who to pick where, today I wanted to focus on the biggest positions of need for the Atlanta Falcons.
1. Defensive Tackle
You will hear a lot of hub-bub about taking Jake Long at #3 and it's hard to argue with the logic. That being said, the Falcons have Johnathan Babineaux, Montavious Stanley and Trey Lewis signed at defensive tackle right now. I'm a big Lewis fan, I thought he showed flashes before his knee injury last season and can be a productive player if he's healthy. If not, it just amplifies the need for that position even more. Our run defense was atrocious last year (just as bad as our run offense) and we're thin at that position.
2. Offensive Tackle
So you knew we weren't going very far without addressing this concern. In case you were wondering why this is an issue, I can answer that with a question. When was the last time the Falcons drafted and developed a franchise tackle?
anyone? Bueller?
That's what I thought.
3. Quarterback
Allow me to brag on Chris Redman and Joey Harrington a bit here. Were they great last year? Nah, but you know what? In the grand scheme of things, they weren't THAT bad. In fact, Aside from the Tampa debacle following Quitrino's abandonment, Redman played pretty well in fact. The Falcons ranked in the middle of the league in most passing statistics. Redman's QB rating was over 90 in his short stint as starter. I think Redman has earned a shot to keep the starting job this season. Is he a long term answer? Probably not, and thus the need to draft a young QB they can develop.
4. Middle Linebacker
The one long standing Falcons veteran that survived the roster purge was Keith Brooking. Honestly, in terms of production that was surprising to me. Brooking might still have some value at his natural position, Outside Linebacker, but he's simply way out of his league in the middle where he played last year. If you can add a good, young MLB to the mix, with Boley and Brooking on the outside and Stephen Nicholas rotating in, well then you have something to work with.
5. Receiver
I'm sort of lumping here. Roddy White had a breakout season, hopefully he'll continue to improve in 2008. If you listen to the show, you know my disdain for Michael "butterfingers" Jenkins. Ben Hartsock was a solid addition, but he's a blocker and not a pass catcher, so adding another tight end who can help replace some of Crumpler's production is necessary.
1. Defensive Tackle
You will hear a lot of hub-bub about taking Jake Long at #3 and it's hard to argue with the logic. That being said, the Falcons have Johnathan Babineaux, Montavious Stanley and Trey Lewis signed at defensive tackle right now. I'm a big Lewis fan, I thought he showed flashes before his knee injury last season and can be a productive player if he's healthy. If not, it just amplifies the need for that position even more. Our run defense was atrocious last year (just as bad as our run offense) and we're thin at that position.
2. Offensive Tackle
So you knew we weren't going very far without addressing this concern. In case you were wondering why this is an issue, I can answer that with a question. When was the last time the Falcons drafted and developed a franchise tackle?
anyone? Bueller?
That's what I thought.
3. Quarterback
Allow me to brag on Chris Redman and Joey Harrington a bit here. Were they great last year? Nah, but you know what? In the grand scheme of things, they weren't THAT bad. In fact, Aside from the Tampa debacle following Quitrino's abandonment, Redman played pretty well in fact. The Falcons ranked in the middle of the league in most passing statistics. Redman's QB rating was over 90 in his short stint as starter. I think Redman has earned a shot to keep the starting job this season. Is he a long term answer? Probably not, and thus the need to draft a young QB they can develop.
4. Middle Linebacker
The one long standing Falcons veteran that survived the roster purge was Keith Brooking. Honestly, in terms of production that was surprising to me. Brooking might still have some value at his natural position, Outside Linebacker, but he's simply way out of his league in the middle where he played last year. If you can add a good, young MLB to the mix, with Boley and Brooking on the outside and Stephen Nicholas rotating in, well then you have something to work with.
5. Receiver
I'm sort of lumping here. Roddy White had a breakout season, hopefully he'll continue to improve in 2008. If you listen to the show, you know my disdain for Michael "butterfingers" Jenkins. Ben Hartsock was a solid addition, but he's a blocker and not a pass catcher, so adding another tight end who can help replace some of Crumpler's production is necessary.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
The Newest Atlanta Falcon
Well it won't be Darren McFadden that's for sure. Today the Falcons reached a 6 year, 34 million dollar contract, with about $15 million guaranteed, with this man
Michael Turner who served as LaDainian Tomlinson's backup in San Diego for the past four seasons. Turner has 228 carries for 1,257 yards and 6 touchdowns in his career.
There are plenty of pros and cons with this deal. Let's start with the positive:
Package Deal
No, The Falcons aren't getting Tomlinson, or any of the spectacular blockers from San Diego alogn with Turner, but this gives the Falcons options at the third pick. If Jake Long the big OT from Michigan is available at #3 then he's the shoo-in pick there and it's hard to argue with the Falcons logic of signing a solid free agent back and drafting the best tackle. The Free Agent tackle class was weak this year so basically a Turner/Long combo is better than any combo you could come up with involving McFadden.
Flashes of brilliance
With Tomlinson ailing (and sulking) during the playoffs, Turner ran for 164 on 43 carries against Tennessee, Indy and New England, that's not a bad group of opponents at all. He also went for over 150 in a game against Denver this year and has three of the 11 longest rushes in San Diego Franchise history. The guy is 5'10, 235lbs with tremendous burst for a guy that big. A big/little combo of Turner and Jerious Norwood is pretty enticing.
Cons
Lack of PT
Despite those flashes of brilliance, you still just gave 15 million guaranteed to a guy with 228 career carries. That's nearly $66,000 per NFL carry. Yes, he was backing up the best back in the league, but there's no way of knowing how he'll handle being the primary back for a 16 season. He has little mileage on him, so that's a plus, but still it's risky giving a guy that much money who hasn't seen that much time on the field.
McFadden WILL be a star
I'm not the only one who feels that way and I feel pretty confident in saying it. All McFadden has done is dominate the best conference in America for the last couple of years. Michael Turner will now be compared to McFadden in Atlanta for the rest of his life. If Turner is just a solid to mediocre back in Atlanta and McFadden is the player a lot of people think he will be, then it's just further going to disenfranchise a fan base that has been continuously kicked in the nuts for the last 40 years. It will be the next "Marvin Williams/Chris Paul/Deron Willams" or "Shelden Williams/Brandon Roy" debacle.
This opens the door to draft Matt Ryan
If Matty Ice is there at #3 (Chris and Jake Long go #1 and #2 let's say) there is a very real possibility that the Falcons will take Matt Ryan. I'm sure Matt Ryan is a nice guy, but how a guy who completed less than 60 percent of his passes, threw 19 interceptions and was less efficient than 60 college quarterbacks last season is a sure fire top 5 pick is beyond me. There is this huge misnomer that turning around an NFL franchise is a long process. Long is a relative term. The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't been competitive in 16 seasons. The Atlanta Hawks haven't made the playoffs in this millenium. Every team in the NFL has made the playoffs in the last five seasons except Detroit, Miami, Arizona and Buffalo and those franchises have been the definition of pathetic this decade. In 2006 the New Orleans Saints went from hopeless to the NFC title game. The Falcons won't turn it around because they haven't revamped the offensive line in its entirety and don't have a pro-bowl QB like Drew Brees on the Roster. That being said, with smart drafting and free agent signings why can't the Falcons turn it around in three years?
You don't draft a quarterback in the top 5 unless you are certain that guy is Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer or because your roster is pretty solid but you're desperately seeking a decent QB to run the show. Matt Ryan might be the latter, but he's not the former and there are too many issues for the Falcons to worry about a marginal top 10 QB prospect. Draft Jake Long if he's there. If he's not, draft Glen Dorsey. If he's not there, see if you can trade. One of those two guys will likely be there for you so it shouldn't be an issue.
Michael Turner who served as LaDainian Tomlinson's backup in San Diego for the past four seasons. Turner has 228 carries for 1,257 yards and 6 touchdowns in his career.
There are plenty of pros and cons with this deal. Let's start with the positive:
Package Deal
No, The Falcons aren't getting Tomlinson, or any of the spectacular blockers from San Diego alogn with Turner, but this gives the Falcons options at the third pick. If Jake Long the big OT from Michigan is available at #3 then he's the shoo-in pick there and it's hard to argue with the Falcons logic of signing a solid free agent back and drafting the best tackle. The Free Agent tackle class was weak this year so basically a Turner/Long combo is better than any combo you could come up with involving McFadden.
Flashes of brilliance
With Tomlinson ailing (and sulking) during the playoffs, Turner ran for 164 on 43 carries against Tennessee, Indy and New England, that's not a bad group of opponents at all. He also went for over 150 in a game against Denver this year and has three of the 11 longest rushes in San Diego Franchise history. The guy is 5'10, 235lbs with tremendous burst for a guy that big. A big/little combo of Turner and Jerious Norwood is pretty enticing.
Cons
Lack of PT
Despite those flashes of brilliance, you still just gave 15 million guaranteed to a guy with 228 career carries. That's nearly $66,000 per NFL carry. Yes, he was backing up the best back in the league, but there's no way of knowing how he'll handle being the primary back for a 16 season. He has little mileage on him, so that's a plus, but still it's risky giving a guy that much money who hasn't seen that much time on the field.
McFadden WILL be a star
I'm not the only one who feels that way and I feel pretty confident in saying it. All McFadden has done is dominate the best conference in America for the last couple of years. Michael Turner will now be compared to McFadden in Atlanta for the rest of his life. If Turner is just a solid to mediocre back in Atlanta and McFadden is the player a lot of people think he will be, then it's just further going to disenfranchise a fan base that has been continuously kicked in the nuts for the last 40 years. It will be the next "Marvin Williams/Chris Paul/Deron Willams" or "Shelden Williams/Brandon Roy" debacle.
This opens the door to draft Matt Ryan
If Matty Ice is there at #3 (Chris and Jake Long go #1 and #2 let's say) there is a very real possibility that the Falcons will take Matt Ryan. I'm sure Matt Ryan is a nice guy, but how a guy who completed less than 60 percent of his passes, threw 19 interceptions and was less efficient than 60 college quarterbacks last season is a sure fire top 5 pick is beyond me. There is this huge misnomer that turning around an NFL franchise is a long process. Long is a relative term. The Pittsburgh Pirates haven't been competitive in 16 seasons. The Atlanta Hawks haven't made the playoffs in this millenium. Every team in the NFL has made the playoffs in the last five seasons except Detroit, Miami, Arizona and Buffalo and those franchises have been the definition of pathetic this decade. In 2006 the New Orleans Saints went from hopeless to the NFC title game. The Falcons won't turn it around because they haven't revamped the offensive line in its entirety and don't have a pro-bowl QB like Drew Brees on the Roster. That being said, with smart drafting and free agent signings why can't the Falcons turn it around in three years?
You don't draft a quarterback in the top 5 unless you are certain that guy is Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer or because your roster is pretty solid but you're desperately seeking a decent QB to run the show. Matt Ryan might be the latter, but he's not the former and there are too many issues for the Falcons to worry about a marginal top 10 QB prospect. Draft Jake Long if he's there. If he's not, draft Glen Dorsey. If he's not there, see if you can trade. One of those two guys will likely be there for you so it shouldn't be an issue.
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