Thursday, April 17, 2008

Hawks-Celtics First Round Breakdown

Half of me says why even bother, but the other half of me is excited to talk about something other than the Braves pitching staff being put together with duct tape and how bad the Falcons are, so I thought I'd give a man for man match-up in the first round series.

Point Guard
Rajon Rondo vs. Mike Bibby
The big question mark and undoubtedly the biggest x-factor in a title run for Boston is Rondo. He's an incredibly talented player, but, pun intended, he's green when it comes to the playoffs. I guess there is reason for optimism when your Point Guard has a ton more experience than his counterpart, but if you saw the last game these two teams played, the beat up, worn out Bibby couldn't keep Rondo in front of him and Rondo did pretty much whatever he wants. The experience factor keeps this match up closer than it is based on performance.
Edge: Boston (slight)

Shooting Guard
Ray Allen vs. Joe Johnson
The Hawks broke the bank to sign Johnson a few years ago and it paid dividends down the stretch this season when Joe played like an All-Star and a warrior to lead the team into the playoffs. Allen is the third banana, but a dangerous one who despite his advancing age is a dangerous 3 point threat any night. It's bad news for the Hawks when their best player isn't head and shoulders above the guy he's matched up with.
Edge: Atlanta (slight)

Small Forward
Paul Pierce vs. Marvin Williams
Hey, did you know the Hawks could have drafted Chris Paul or Deron Williams?
Edge: Boston (significant)

Power Forward
Kevin Garnett vs. Josh Smith
Josh Smith is a very talented player. This one isn't close.
Edge: Boston (significant)

Center
Kendrick Perkins vs. Al Hoford
The people's choice for rookie of the year is a better scorer, rebounder and passer. That's pretty cut and dry.
Edge: Atlanta (moderate)

Bench
Boston's bench beat Atlanta in the 4th quarter the other night. The Hawks don't have a bench.
Edge: Boston (Significant)

Coach
Doc Rivers vs. Mike Woodson
I'd take Isiah Thomas over Mike Woodson in a one game situation (presuming Isiah didn't put his team together himself). I don't know what further indictment I can give Woody.
Edge: Boston (Significant)

Best Case Scenario for Atlanta
Playoff jitters get to Rondo, Garnett's past playoff failures make him tight. Joe Johnson is on fire. Bibby is clutch. Josh Smith plays like a guy looking for a big contract. Horford dominates Perkins. Hawks lose in 5 games, all of which come down to the wire.

Worst Case Scenario for the Hawks
Whatever it is, expect it to unfold in this series.

The Pick
Even if everything goes wrong for Boston in this series, they're still playing Atlanta and Mike Woodson will find a way to neutralize any advantages Atlanta might cook up. It's great Atlanta has made the playoffs and hopefully can build on it this offseason. However, in this situation the outlook ain't rosy.

Boston in 4.

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